A Scenario-based Approach to Strategic Planning

3 INTRODUCTION In this paper we describe the fourth-stage of our six-step scenario-based approach to strategic planning, the scenario building. Having completed the trend and uncertainty analysis using the 'Impact/Uncertainty Grid' tool in stage three, we will present in this paper how plausible scenarios can be created based on the identified key uncertainties using the 'Scenario Matrix' tool (Figure 1). The overall goal of the scenario building step and its 'Scenario Matrix' tool is to generate and develop four distinct future scenarios. Of particular interest in this context is the actual process of deriving the scenarios out of the previously identified two critical influence factors using the so-called 'scenario influence diagram' and 'scenario fact sheet' (Wulf, Meissner and Stubner, 2010). Before explaining the 'Scenario Matrix' tool itself we will examine what scenarios actually are, what the basic idea behind them is and how they can help a company to think ahead.